Monday, May 03, 2010

Trajectory Forecast for The Oil Disaster in the Gulf

I am receiving a great deal of information through my various contacts in the Gulf Region.  I promise to process it and pass it along to you as quickly as I can.  I am on a call now with Gulf Coast Fund groups discussing response to the active and looming catastrophe in the Gulf.

For the moment, here is a map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showing a forecasted trajectory:
This from the chemist and activist Wilma Subra:

Latest confirmed information -- originally after the rig toppled over the estimate was 1000 barrels a day.  Then the estimate went up to 5000 barrels a day.  Nothing changed but the method of estimation.  Estimating by overflight and satellite. British Petroleum has stated that these projections are totally imprecise.  Based on information today the oil has come on land, marshy land at the very toe of Louisiana and the Chandelier Islands.  The oil booms are working well in some places and not so well in others...

Oil has not hit St. Bernard Parish, not Mississippi Gulf Coast, it's currently moving off shore, away from shore because the wind is moving north. Folks who are smelling the oil is because the wind is forming an aerosol of the oil as it moves over the sheen.  When the wind is blowing S-SE people are smelling oil way ahead of the slick. This aerosol is causing significant health impacts.  Serious exposure now even before oil getting to shore.

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